A Spectacular New Year

I wish you a very happy new year, I really expect it will be a spectacular year.

I have re-read all my posts of 2017, and I found it pretty boring stuff. The first months I was under the impression a sizeable selloff was possible, but the decisive level I identified for confirmation was not broken, and so the market went higher and higher without any surprises.

The monthly chart looks like the uptrend is not over yet:

DAX Monthly

The all-time high is counted as the end of wave 3 of 5, and if this wave count is correct we have to expect one more push up.

DAX Weekly

On a weekly basis, the corrective wave from the top looks unfinished, there should be at least a new low, and if there is some similarity to the corresponding second wave the low may be in the support area indicated in the chart.

One possibility is that the next weekly cycle bottom, which is due soon, will coincide with the end of the correction. At the moment the cycle has 17 bars.

DAX Daily

The daily cycle is the fifth since the last weekly cycle bottom in August 2017, and it has only 8 bars, so I do not expect the daily and weekly cycle bottom within the next two weeks. But I can be very wrong here since it has been hard to discern the daily cycles in the sideways move. So I will be looking for price action signals as soon as price has moved below 12800 (which in fact it did today …).

And why would 2018 possibly become spectacular? Well, maybe it will last until 2019, but the new monthly cycle will add 12 bars, so December 2018 will be bar 16. Keep in mind that a bearish cycle will often have left translation, so the top will be early, way before bar 16. Add to that the expectation of the fifth leg of wave 5 completing the wave that started in March 2009. Finally, consider we are living in the era of the everything bubble.

Speculating, the top may reach into the 14000’s, and the target down will be the lower level 4th wave, around 9000. So this will be considered a crash of 33%, and that is, IMHO, spectacular although predictable ;)

Once more, happy new year, and trade safe!

Greetings from Ottawa, ON, Canada.

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Again: the trend is intact

The trend is solid, and I do not expect it to change soon. Maybe wave (3) red of [5] is complete, so some short term volatility can be expected.

DAX Monthly

The weekly chart suggests to expect more downside into the support area around 12000.

DAX Weekly

The weekly cycle has 13 bars, the structure looks like a-b down from the top, or 1-2, that remains to be decided later. The daily chart looks like a triangle, so then it has to be a-b, but that picture can change in a day.

So, take care, and trade safe.

Greetings from Ottawa, ON, Canada.

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Steady she goes

No new analysis needed, still following the path outlined in the September post. There are a lot of waves still to expect, so the crash a lot of people are expecting could take a while, unless of course my wave count is terribly wrong.

DAX monthly

I guess when the current wave is complete there will be a pullback to about 11.900, which is the standard Elliott wave level for a fourth wave.

DAX weekly

Looking at the weekly chart a possible upside target is where wave v equals wave i, this doesn’t have to be the case, but since we are in uncharted territory this is what we have to work with.

My conclusion is that a intermediate top can be set relatively soon, with a down target of 11.900, but after that I expect a new rally to a new all time high.

I’m also keeping lower time-frame charts, but for this blog I think they are of little use.

That’s all I have to say this time, trade safe!

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