The scenario discussed in the two previous post is playing out as expected. By now the DAX index has reached the horizontal support zone:
The monthly wave count is still incomplete, so there has to follow a wave up to a new all time high before a larger correction takes place (and even that may not be the most devastating one, but that case is less convincing, so I leave that discussion for the end of the expected fifth wave). Or, of course, the wave count may be false.
A few weeks ago I updated the previous post with this 180 min cycle chart of the DAX index:
I wrote that a break of the bearish flag to the upside would be a very bullish signal, but that break never actually happened, though the bulls really did their best. A look at the Elliott Wave count clearly shows why: a fifth wave down was missing.
It is hard to say whether the fifth wave is complete now, I think not, but if this wave count is correct there will be a bottom soon, after which either a rally to a new all time high will start, or we have to endure another couple of legs of this corrective wave.
So March 2018 started bearish, but chances are it ends very bullish.
Trade safe, greetings from Ottawa where spring is in the air!