A Spectacular New Year

I wish you a very happy new year, I really expect it will be a spectacular year.

I have re-read all my posts of 2017, and I found it pretty boring stuff. The first months I was under the impression a sizeable selloff was possible, but the decisive level I identified for confirmation was not broken, and so the market went higher and higher without any surprises.

The monthly chart looks like the uptrend is not over yet:

DAX Monthly

The all-time high is counted as the end of wave 3 of 5, and if this wave count is correct we have to expect one more push up.

DAX Weekly

On a weekly basis, the corrective wave from the top looks unfinished, there should be at least a new low, and if there is some similarity to the corresponding second wave the low may be in the support area indicated in the chart.

One possibility is that the next weekly cycle bottom, which is due soon, will coincide with the end of the correction. At the moment the cycle has 17 bars.

DAX Daily

The daily cycle is the fifth since the last weekly cycle bottom in August 2017, and it has only 8 bars, so I do not expect the daily and weekly cycle bottom within the next two weeks. But I can be very wrong here since it has been hard to discern the daily cycles in the sideways move. So I will be looking for price action signals as soon as price has moved below 12800 (which in fact it did today …).

And why would 2018 possibly become spectacular? Well, maybe it will last until 2019, but the new monthly cycle will add 12 bars, so December 2018 will be bar 16. Keep in mind that a bearish cycle will often have left translation, so the top will be early, way before bar 16. Add to that the expectation of the fifth leg of wave 5 completing the wave that started in March 2009. Finally, consider we are living in the era of the everything bubble.

Speculating, the top may reach into the 14000’s, and the target down will be the lower level 4th wave, around 9000. So this will be considered a crash of 33%, and that is, IMHO, spectacular although predictable ;)

Once more, happy new year, and trade safe!

Greetings from Ottawa, ON, Canada.

About Marco Zuilhof

My name is Marco Zuilhof. I live in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. I’m a self educated trader, trading my own money. I count Elliott Waves and Bressert cycles in real time, this is hard to do, and error prone. So everything I write is only an educated guess, not an advice to buy or sell certain stocks, or to take a position in the market. Every month I intend to write something sensible about the DAX index, guessing what the future might be, and I make a daily morning call on the DAX, mainly to prepare myself for the day, however that I do not share for free, but for €1 you can read the actual one.
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